U.S. Trade Deficits
September 19, 2007
The U.S. consistently ran Trade Surpluses from 1960 to 1970, but after 1970 has incurred Trade Deficits in every year except 1973 and 1975. The following two charts show the aggregate ‘Goods Only’ Trade Deficit by Decade for the Decades ended 1979, 1989, 1999, and 2009, where we have assumed that the Trade Deficit for 2006 will be repeated in each of 2007 through 2009 when the Trade Deficit has increased on a year over year basis in every year after 2001. Based on current monthly trade deficit levels we believe it likely, barring a serious recession, that the Trade Deficit we have interpolated for the Decade ended 2009 will be greater than the amount we have calculated (Data – Balance of Payment basis: U.S. Census Bureau, Foreign Trade Division).

